Valencian floods: We need to talk about climate change!

By Amanda Soler Guzman

Two months ago, torrential rains battered the region of Valencia (Spain), my homeland. The  flash floods caught the population by surprise, killing more than 200 people and causing an estimated economic impact of more than 16 billion euros to date (1).

I spent the weekend bringing essential products to collection points and supporting the affected villages. Many areas lacked electricity, water, food or medicines. There were cars and trucks piled up on top of each other, blocking the streets. Dirt was everywhere, access to sanitary and cleaning products was limited. The mud was starting to decompose and the risks of having an epidemy were growing. On top of that, people were afraid of leaving their home because the rate of thefts and burglaries had increased. The situation was desperate.

Thousands of volunteers – my friends and I amongst them – had been persistently and  tirelessly travelling to the areas in need, walking for hours under the sun, carrying heavy tools and provisions. I feel tremendously fortunate to have witnessed such an empowering example of solidarity and resilience shown by the Valencian people. Sadly, there was so much to do that local populations and volunteers were stuck without  professional help from the military and other national forces. The recovery will take months and there is a great need for funds to support the affected people, particularly for the rehabilitation of thousands of houses and small local businesses.

Coming back to Brussels, after what I had seen on the ground and continued to read in the many messages I received from family and friends, was very difficult. My heart is in Valencia, covered in mud, with those who are still working against the clock to build back lives…against a future that might no longer exist.

We need to talk about climate change

There is nothing ‘natural’ about the disaster in Valencia. Yes, the region is well familiar with heavy rainfalls in autumn known as ‘DANA’, but the frequency and intensity of those events is escalating as a consequence of climate change. 

In a rapid analysis, the World Weather Attribution observed that heavy rainfall in the region is 12% more intense and twice as likely to occur in today’s climate – 1.3°C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times (1850-1900).[2] Another study by ClimaMeter confirmed that similar weather events in the Spanish Mediterranean coast are 15% more intense than in the past, worsened by the record sea temperatures of up to 28.9°C, reached last August.[3] The results are in line with wider scientific consensus about the direct connection between incremental global warming and greater risks of flooding[4] – 100% for 1.5°C, 170% for 2°C and 580% for 4°C[5] 

This is only a small fraction of what is coming: EVERY DEGREE OF WARMING MATTERS.

Climate adaptation saves lives

One of the most painful aspects of the disaster is how easily it could have been avoided, at least for the human and non-human lives that it has taken. 

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the damage caused by a disaster can be reduced by 30% if an early warning is issued within 24 hours.[6]

The AEMET - Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (Spanish State Meteorological Agency) started warning about the formation of a potential DANA one week before it occurred. The last warning, a top-level red alert, was issued at 9.48h on 29th of October, the same day of the catastrophe. Despite numerous warnings, the regional government did not  set the official alarm until 20h, when the floods were already out of control.[7] 

Besides anticipation, the worst impacts could have been prevented on the ground with  the right – and timely! – mechanisms for disaster response. Unfortunately, the previous year, the newly-elected regional government dismantled the Valencian Emergency Unit – a new regional body to coordinate fire brigades in the event of a disaster.[8]  

The lack of ‘institutional’ anticipation, combined with weak post-disaster protocols and the absence of climate change considerations in territorial management and policymaking, had led to the untenable situation that Valencians are facing today.

In a global context where the world is expected to warm by 3.1°C at our current path,[9] climate mitigation, climate adaptation and disaster preparedness are a matter of survival.

The time for action is now

Perhaps the most important learning of the Valencian tragedy is that, when people  unite, wonderful things can happen. 

With the recent international conference of climate change (COP29), climate skepticism riding on top of a reactionary political wave and growing pressure against the European Green Deal [10], the time is now to get together and ask governments to take a firm stand against climate change.

If you are in need of inspiration, here are a few suggestions on how to contribute: 

• Show your solidarity with the victims of the disaster in Spain (fundraising Espai  Valencia Belgica account BE86 5230 8139 0250); 

• Join the call for an international Fossil Fuel Treaty; 

• Support, join and/or follow your local climate groups to join actions and learn  more about climate change. I personally enjoy the educational work by Scientist Rebellion.

I do not know if we still have a chance, but one thing is clear: we do not have a choice. Our future, our family and friends, our identity, our culture, the places where we grew up  and all the things that make each of our lives safe and enjoyable are worth fighting for,  more than ever. 

Sources:

[1]https://www.caixabankresearch.com/sites/default/files/content/file/2024/12/16/34411/im12_24_07_ee_focus_6_es.pdf

[2] https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-downpours-increasing-in southern-spain-as-fossil-fuel-emissions-heat-the-climate/ 

[3] https://www.elmundo.es/ciencia-y salud/ciencia/2024/08/16/66bf34a3fc6c837f648b45c3.html 

[4] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-00953#:~:text=The%20Clausius%2DClapeyron%20relation%20indicates,degree%20Celsius %20increase%20in%20temperature 

[5] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016EF000485

[6] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016EF000485 [7] https://wmo.int/topics/early-warning-system 

[7] https://climatica.coop/aemet-meteorologos-avisaron-dana-semana-pasada/

[8] https://www.eldiario.es/comunitat-valenciana/politica/unidad-valenciana emergencias-servicio-coordinacion-mazon-suspendio-llegar gobierno_1_11779165.html 

[9] https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/10/1156071 

[10] https://www.wwf.eu/?15600416/Business-and-civil-society-urge-European Commission-to-implement-smarter-not-less